Fed Decision October 2026: Will the Fed Raise Rates?

Quick answer: The Federal Reserve announces its October 2026 decision on Wednesday 28 October at 14:00 ET. A hold at 3.75% to 4.00% is the clear favourite: about 94.5% on Chipstars Predictions on 26 October 2026, against about 4.5% for a 25 basis point hike. The bigger question is December, where a hike is priced at about 76.5%.

Updated: 26 October 2026

• Meeting: FOMC, 27 to 28 October 2026
• Decision: Wednesday 28 October, 14:00 ET (19:00 CET), press conference 14:30 ET
• Current target range: 3.75% to 4.00%
• Last move: 25 basis point hike on 16 September 2026, the first since July 2023
• Chipstars Predictions, October: No change about 94.5%, 25 bps hike about 4.5%, cut under 1%
• Chipstars Predictions, December: 25 bps hike about 76.5%, no change about 20.5%

When is the Fed decision in October 2026?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on 27 and 28 October 2026 and publishes its statement on Wednesday 28 October at 14:00 Eastern Time. That is 19:00 in Berlin and Madrid and 18:00 in London and Lisbon. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks to the press 30 minutes later.

There are no new projections this time. The next "dot plot" comes with the 8 to 9 December meeting.

Will the Fed raise rates in October?

Very probably not. A Reuters poll taken from 16 to 20 October found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75% to 4.00% this week. Market odds of an October hike fell from above 70% in late September to under 10% by 22 October.

The turn came with the September jobs report: US employers added only 29,000 jobs, far below forecasts, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.

Why is the Fed raising rates in 2026?

Because inflation is moving the wrong way. US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August, led by gasoline and other energy costs. Oil has stayed above $100 a barrel as the war with Iran disrupts supply, and new import tariffs add to prices.

In September the FOMC voted 12 to 0 for a 25 basis point hike. In the Reuters poll, all 100 economists now expect another hike in December, and nearly 60% of forecasters see the peak at 4.00% to 4.25%.

What do the Fed rate hike odds say on Chipstars Predictions?

Chipstars Predictions lists three Fed markets. Each answer shows a percentage that tracks the market price, as of 26 October 2026:

• Fed Decision in October?: No change about 94.5%, 25 bps increase about 4.5%
• Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase about 76.5%, no change about 20.5%
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?: Yes (no cut this year) about 96%

These markets settle on the upper bound of the target range (4.00% today) as published in the FOMC statement. The percentages move with every data release and every word from Fed officials.

A lower percentage means a bigger return if you are right. As a rough guide, an answer bought at about 5% returns around 20 times the stake if it wins, while one at about 94% returns only a little more than the stake. Your price is fixed when you bet. New to this? Read how prediction markets work.

What could a Fed hike mean for Bitcoin?

Higher rates make safe yields more attractive, which can weigh on risky assets such as crypto. According to FinanceFeeds, Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on 24 October, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $773 million in outflows on 22 and 23 October. Their analysts see the October hold as priced in and the tone on December as the real driver. That is one view, not a rule: Bitcoin also moves for reasons unrelated to the Fed.

How to bet on the Fed decision at Chipstars

1. Log in to your Chipstars account and open Predictions.
2. Tap the search icon (magnifying glass) at the top right, type "Fed" and open "Fed Decision in October?".
3. Pick your answer and check its percentage.
4. Enter your stake, check the possible return on the bet slip and confirm.

The October market settles after the statement on 28 October. The December market stays open until the 9 December decision.

FAQ

What is the current Fed interest rate?

The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, set on 16 September 2026.

Is a Fed rate cut possible in 2026?

Markets see it as very unlikely: in "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?", Yes (no cut this year) stood at about 96% on Chipstars Predictions on 26 October 2026.

Can I still bet on the December Fed meeting?

Yes. "Fed Decision in December?" stays open until 9 December, and its percentages will react to this week's decision.

Can I bet on the Fed from any country?

No. Chipstars is operated by SoftSpark Services s.r.l, licensed in Anjouan (licence ALSI-202409048-FI2), and does not accept players from the USA, France, the Netherlands, Singapore, Curaçao or Comoros. Check the rules where you live.

Sources

• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar 2026
• Reuters poll via AOL: Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December (20 Oct 2026)
• TradingKey: October 2026 FOMC preview (24 Oct 2026)
• Admirals: Fed rate decision October 2026
• Trading Economics: US CPI September 2026
• FinanceFeeds: Fed decision and Bitcoin (25 Oct 2026)
• Market percentages: Chipstars Predictions, checked 26 October 2026

Play responsibly

Chipstars is for players aged 18+ only. Betting on a Fed decision is gambling, not investing: it is entertainment, not a source of income, and even a 94% favourite can lose. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a deposit limit and take breaks. All tools are on the Chipstars responsible gaming page. You can also browse the Chipstars sportsbook.